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Oţelul vs FCSB — Liga I 2026

Oţelul
Oţelul
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
FCSB
FCSB
12/2/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 18Stadionul Oţelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Oţelul33%
×Draw28%
FCSB40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oţelul
1.13
FCSB
1.28

FCSB creates 13% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 155 away

creates per match

Oţelul
1.18
FCSB
1.51

allows per match

Oţelul
1.05
FCSB
1.07

finishing

Oţelul+0.00on par
FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw
60%
Oţelul or FCSB
72%
Draw or FCSB
67%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+
13%
FCSB wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals
68%
Oţelul 2+ goals
31%
Oţelul 3+ goals
11%
FCSB 1+ goals
72%
FCSB 2+ goals
37%
FCSB 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)
45%
FCSB (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 1.18 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

FCSB attack 1.51 + Oţelul defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oţelul scores more
33%
level
28%
FCSB scores more
40%

FCSB at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oţelul 1 – 4 FCSB

FCSB beat Oţelul 4-1 in Liga I on December 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Oţelul in Galaţi.