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Oţelul vs Farul Constanta — Liga I 2026

Oţelul
Oţelul
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
5/16/2025Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 9Stadionul Oţelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Oţelul51%
×Draw21%
Farul Constanta27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oţelul
2.06
Farul Constanta
1.46

Oţelul creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Oţelul
2.12
Farul Constanta
1.61

allows per match

Oţelul
1.30
Farul Constanta
2.01

finishing

Oţelul-0.52scores less
Farul Constanta-0.36scores less

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

Farul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw
73%
Oţelul or Farul Constanta
79%
Draw or Farul Constanta
49%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+
30%
Farul Constanta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals
87%
Oţelul 2+ goals
61%
Oţelul 3+ goals
34%
Farul Constanta 1+ goals
77%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
43%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)
65%
Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.30 · 5 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.01 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 2.12 + Farul Constanta defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.06

Farul Constanta attack 1.61 + Oţelul defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Oţelul scores more
51%
level
21%
Farul Constanta scores more
27%

Oţelul at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Oţelul 0–0 Farul Constanta

Oţelul and Farul Constanta drew 0-0 in Liga I on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Oţelul in Galaţi.