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Oţelul vs Dinamo Bucuresti — Liga I 2026

Oţelul
Oţelul
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti
4/8/2024Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 3Stadionul Oţelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Oţelul51%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Bucuresti26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oţelul
1.75
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.17

Oţelul creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Oţelul
2.12
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.03

allows per match

Oţelul
1.30
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.39

finishing

Oţelul-0.52scores less
Dinamo Bucuresti-0.03on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw
74%
Oţelul or Dinamo Bucuresti
76%
Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti
49%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+
28%
Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals
83%
Oţelul 2+ goals
52%
Oţelul 3+ goals
25%
Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)
67%
Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.30 · 5 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 2.12 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.75

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.03 + Oţelul defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Oţelul scores more
51%
level
24%
Dinamo Bucuresti scores more
26%

Oţelul at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oţelul vs Dinamo Bucuresti

Oţelul beat Dinamo Bucuresti 1-0 in Liga I on April 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Oţelul in Galaţi.