Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oţelul vs ACS Sirineasa — Liga II 2018

Oţelul
Oţelul
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
10/2/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 8Stadionul Oţelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oţelul50%
×Draw26%
ACS Sirineasa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oţelul
1.48
ACS Sirineasa
0.92

Oţelul creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Oţelul
1.40
ACS Sirineasa
1.11

allows per match

Oţelul
0.73
ACS Sirineasa
1.56

finishing

Oţelul+0.00on par
ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

ACS Sirineasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw
77%
Oţelul or ACS Sirineasa
74%
Draw or ACS Sirineasa
50%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+
25%
ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals
77%
Oţelul 2+ goals
43%
Oţelul 3+ goals
19%
ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
60%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
23%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)
68%
ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 1.40 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + Oţelul defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oţelul scores more
50%
level
26%
ACS Sirineasa scores more
23%

Oţelul at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oţelul vs ACS Sirineasa

Oţelul beat ACS Sirineasa 2-1 in Liga II on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Oţelul in Galaţi.