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Otava Katovice vs Tatran Sedlčany — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
CANC
13:30
Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
4/3/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 10Strakonice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Otava Katovice70%
×Draw16%
Tatran Sedlčany14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otava Katovice
2.84
Tatran Sedlčany
1.24

Otava Katovice creates 129% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 28 away

creates per match

Otava Katovice
2.29
Tatran Sedlčany
1.11

allows per match

Otava Katovice
1.36
Tatran Sedlčany
3.39

finishing

Otava Katovice+0.00on par
Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otava Katovice ↓

Tatran Sedlčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Otava Katovice or draw
86%
Otava Katovice or Tatran Sedlčany
84%
Draw or Tatran Sedlčany
30%

Winning margin

Otava Katovice wins by 2+
49%
Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Otava Katovice 1+ goals
94%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
77%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
53%
Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
71%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
35%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
83%
Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otava Katovice at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Tatran Sedlčany away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otava Katovice attack 2.29 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 3.39 → ÷2 → 2.84

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.11 + Otava Katovice defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Otava Katovice scores more
70%
level
16%
Tatran Sedlčany scores more
14%

Otava Katovice at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Otava Katovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Otava Katovice face Tatran Sedlčany (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Otava Katovice hosting Tatran Sedlčany. Match starts April 3, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Otava Katovice host Tatran Sedlčany at Strakonice UMT.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.