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Otava Katovice vs Spartak Soběslav — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
FT
1 – 2
Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
10/2/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 10Katovice - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Otava Katovice48%
×Draw22%
Spartak Soběslav30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otava Katovice
1.99
Spartak Soběslav
1.54

Otava Katovice creates 29% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 86 away

creates per match

Otava Katovice
2.29
Spartak Soběslav
1.73

allows per match

Otava Katovice
1.36
Spartak Soběslav
1.69

finishing

Otava Katovice+0.00on par
Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otava Katovice ↓

Spartak Soběslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Otava Katovice or draw
70%
Otava Katovice or Spartak Soběslav
78%
Draw or Spartak Soběslav
52%

Winning margin

Otava Katovice wins by 2+
27%
Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Otava Katovice 1+ goals
86%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
59%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
32%
Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
79%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
45%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
62%
Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otava Katovice at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Spartak Soběslav away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otava Katovice attack 2.29 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.99

Spartak Soběslav attack 1.73 + Otava Katovice defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Otava Katovice scores more
48%
level
22%
Spartak Soběslav scores more
30%

Otava Katovice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Otava Katovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Otava Katovice vs Spartak Soběslav

Spartak Soběslav beat Otava Katovice 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Katovice - tráva in Katovice.