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Otava Katovice vs Přeštice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
CANC
15:00
Přeštice
Přeštice
6/12/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 28Katovice - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Otava Katovice28%
×Draw21%
Přeštice52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otava Katovice
1.58
Přeštice
2.20

Přeštice creates 39% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 23 away

creates per match

Otava Katovice
2.29
Přeštice
3.04

allows per match

Otava Katovice
1.36
Přeštice
0.87

finishing

Otava Katovice+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otava Katovice ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Otava Katovice or draw
48%
Otava Katovice or Přeštice
79%
Draw or Přeštice
72%

Winning margin

Otava Katovice wins by 2+
13%
Přeštice wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Otava Katovice 1+ goals
79%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
47%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
21%
Přeštice 1+ goals
89%
Přeštice 2+ goals
64%
Přeštice 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
35%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otava Katovice at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Přeštice away — creates 3.04, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otava Katovice attack 2.29 + Přeštice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.58

Přeštice attack 3.04 + Otava Katovice defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Otava Katovice scores more
28%
level
21%
Přeštice scores more
52%

Přeštice at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Otava Katovice vs Přeštice — Match Preview

Otava Katovice face Přeštice on June 12, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Otava Katovice host Přeštice at Katovice - tráva.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.