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Otava Katovice vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
5/21/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 26Katovice - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Otava Katovice62%
×Draw19%
Jindřichův Hradec19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otava Katovice
2.40
Jindřichův Hradec
1.25

Otava Katovice creates 92% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 56 away

creates per match

Otava Katovice
2.29
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Otava Katovice
1.36
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Otava Katovice+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otava Katovice ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Otava Katovice or draw
81%
Otava Katovice or Jindřichův Hradec
81%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
38%

Winning margin

Otava Katovice wins by 2+
41%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Otava Katovice 1+ goals
91%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
69%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
42%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
71%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
36%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
77%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otava Katovice at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otava Katovice attack 2.29 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.40

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Otava Katovice defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Otava Katovice scores more
62%
level
19%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
19%

Otava Katovice at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Otava Katovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Otava Katovice 1 – 0 Jindřichův Hradec

Otava Katovice beat Jindřichův Hradec 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Katovice - tráva in Katovice.