Ostrovets FC 0–3 Zhodino Yuzhnoe: Result & Stats

Ostrovets FC

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

10/22/2023

1. Division · Round 29Stadyen ASK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ostrovets FC35%

×Draw23%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostrovets FCExpected goals in this matchZhodino Yuzhnoe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.77

Ostrovets FC

1.59

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.77

Zhodino Yuzhnoe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 16 away

1.50

creates per match

1.94

1.60

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Ostrovets FC

1.50

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.94

allows per match

Ostrovets FC

1.60

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostrovets FC+0.00on par

Zhodino Yuzhnoe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrovets FC ↓

Zhodino Yuzhnoe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Ostrovets FC or draw

58%

Ostrovets FC or Zhodino Yuzhnoe

77%

Draw or Zhodino Yuzhnoe

65%

Winning margin

Ostrovets FC wins by 2+

17%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ostrovets FC 1+ goals

80%

Ostrovets FC 2+ goals

47%

Ostrovets FC 3+ goals

21%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1+ goals

83%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2+ goals

53%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)

45%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrovets FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Zhodino Yuzhnoe away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrovets FC attack 1.50 + Zhodino Yuzhnoe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Zhodino Yuzhnoe attack 1.94 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ostrovets FC scores more

35%

level

23%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe scores more

42%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zhodino Yuzhnoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff