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Ostrovets FC vs Lokomotiv Gomel — 1. Division 2018

Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lokomotiv Gomel
Lokomotiv Gomel
4/12/20251. Division1. Division · Round 3City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Ostrovets FC35%
×Draw25%
Lokomotiv Gomel40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrovets FC
1.40
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 121 away

creates per match

Ostrovets FC
1.50
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.40

allows per match

Ostrovets FC
1.60
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.29

finishing

Ostrovets FC+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrovets FC ↓

Lokomotiv Gomel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ostrovets FC or draw
60%
Ostrovets FC or Lokomotiv Gomel
75%
Draw or Lokomotiv Gomel
65%

Winning margin

Ostrovets FC wins by 2+
16%
Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ostrovets FC 1+ goals
75%
Ostrovets FC 2+ goals
41%
Ostrovets FC 3+ goals
17%
Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals
44%
Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)
47%
Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrovets FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Lokomotiv Gomel away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.29 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrovets FC attack 1.50 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 1.40 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ostrovets FC scores more
35%
level
25%
Lokomotiv Gomel scores more
40%

Lokomotiv Gomel at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lokomotiv Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostrovets FC vs Lokomotiv Gomel

Ostrovets FC beat Lokomotiv Gomel 2-0 in 1. Division on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at City Stadium in Ostrovets.