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Ostrovets FC vs Lida — 1. Division 2018

Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lida
Lida
5/11/20241. Division1. Division · Round 6Stadyen ASK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Ostrovets FC38%
×Draw24%
Lida38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrovets FC
1.54
Lida
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 128 away

creates per match

Ostrovets FC
1.50
Lida
1.45

allows per match

Ostrovets FC
1.60
Lida
1.59

finishing

Ostrovets FC+0.00on par
Lida+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrovets FC ↓

Lida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ostrovets FC or draw
62%
Ostrovets FC or Lida
76%
Draw or Lida
62%

Winning margin

Ostrovets FC wins by 2+
19%
Lida wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ostrovets FC 1+ goals
79%
Ostrovets FC 2+ goals
45%
Ostrovets FC 3+ goals
20%
Lida 1+ goals
78%
Lida 2+ goals
45%
Lida 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)
51%
Lida (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrovets FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Lida away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.59 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrovets FC attack 1.50 + Lida defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lida attack 1.45 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ostrovets FC scores more
38%
level
24%
Lida scores more
38%

Ostrovets FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ostrovets FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Ostrovets FC 0–2 Lida

Lida beat Ostrovets FC 2-0 in 1. Division on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen ASK in Astravets.