Ostrovets FC 3–1 BATE II: Result & Stats

Ostrovets FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

BATE II

A. Zhukovskiy 90'

M. Lotysh 59'

D. Khvostovich 56'

Z. Shevchik 9'

8/17/2024

1. Division · Round 20Stadyen ASK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Ostrovets FC42%

×Draw24%

BATE II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostrovets FCExpected goals in this matchBATE II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.45

Ostrovets FC

1.65

BATE II

1.45

Ostrovets FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 42 away

1.50

creates per match

1.29

1.60

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Ostrovets FC

1.50

BATE II

1.29

allows per match

Ostrovets FC

1.60

BATE II

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostrovets FC+0.00on par

BATE II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrovets FC ↓

BATE II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ostrovets FC or draw

66%

Ostrovets FC or BATE II

76%

Draw or BATE II

58%

Winning margin

Ostrovets FC wins by 2+

22%

BATE II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ostrovets FC 1+ goals

81%

Ostrovets FC 2+ goals

49%

Ostrovets FC 3+ goals

23%

BATE II 1+ goals

77%

BATE II 2+ goals

42%

BATE II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)

56%

BATE II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrovets FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

BATE II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrovets FC attack 1.50 + BATE II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

BATE II attack 1.29 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ostrovets FC scores more

42%

level

24%

BATE II scores more

34%

Ostrovets FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ostrovets FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Z. Shevchik

21'

Z. Shevchik

36'

M. Lotysh← A. Kolomatskiy

46'

E. Semenov← A. Bakinovskiy

46'

Y. Volovik← N. Kachur

56'

D. Khvostovich

59'

M. Lotysh

62'

A. Sakhonchik← I. Baranov

62'

V. Golovachenko← V. Orlovskiy

69'

Z. Kondratovich

70'

I. Brelunenko← I. Chernykh

70'

Y. Shumskiy← M. Telesh

71'

E. Semenov

76'

M. Avgustinovich← D. Khvostovich

88'

V. Yatskevich

89'

A. Zhukovskiy← V. Yatskevich

90'

A. Zhukovskiy

Ostrovets

BATE

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Y. Karatay

36'▲M. Lotysh←▼A. Kolomatskiy

46'▲E. Semenov←▼A. Bakinovskiy

46'▲Y. Volovik←▼N. Kachur

76'▲M. Avgustinovich←▼D. Khvostovich

89'▲A. Zhukovskiy←▼V. Yatskevich

Ostrovets FC substitutes

LotyshSemenovVolovikAvgustinovichZhukovskiyAshrafiFurmanovGomonovGrigarkevichLoyko

Manager: I. Migal

62'▲A. Sakhonchik←▼I. Baranov

62'▲V. Golovachenko←▼V. Orlovskiy

70'▲I. Brelunenko←▼I. Chernykh

70'▲Y. Shumskiy←▼M. Telesh

BATE II substitutes

SakhonchikGolovachenkoBrelunenkoShumskiySinkevichKlyakinPraleskaKisel