Ostrovets FC 1–2 ABFF U17: Result & Stats

Ostrovets FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

ABFF U17

9/28/2024

1. Division · Round 26Stadyen ASK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ostrovets FC43%

×Draw25%

ABFF U1732%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostrovets FCExpected goals in this matchABFF U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.33

Ostrovets FC

1.57

ABFF U17

1.33

Ostrovets FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

1.50

creates per match

1.06

1.60

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Ostrovets FC

1.50

ABFF U17

1.06

allows per match

Ostrovets FC

1.60

ABFF U17

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostrovets FC+0.00on par

ABFF U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrovets FC ↓

ABFF U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ostrovets FC or draw

68%

Ostrovets FC or ABFF U17

75%

Draw or ABFF U17

57%

Winning margin

Ostrovets FC wins by 2+

22%

ABFF U17 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ostrovets FC 1+ goals

79%

Ostrovets FC 2+ goals

46%

Ostrovets FC 3+ goals

21%

ABFF U17 1+ goals

74%

ABFF U17 2+ goals

38%

ABFF U17 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)

57%

ABFF U17 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrovets FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

ABFF U17 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrovets FC attack 1.50 + ABFF U17 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

ABFF U17 attack 1.06 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ostrovets FC scores more

43%

level

25%

ABFF U17 scores more

32%

Ostrovets FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ostrovets FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff