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Ostrov vs Tatran Rakovník — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Ostrov
Ostrov
FT
3 – 0
Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
10/23/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 13Stadion FK Ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ostrov72%
×Draw16%
Tatran Rakovník12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrov
2.54
Tatran Rakovník
0.94

Ostrov creates 170% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 24 away

creates per match

Ostrov
1.69
Tatran Rakovník
0.75

allows per match

Ostrov
1.13
Tatran Rakovník
3.38

finishing

Ostrov+0.00on par
Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrov ↓

Tatran Rakovník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ostrov or draw
88%
Ostrov or Tatran Rakovník
84%
Draw or Tatran Rakovník
28%

Winning margin

Ostrov wins by 2+
50%
Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ostrov 1+ goals
92%
Ostrov 2+ goals
72%
Ostrov 3+ goals
46%
Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
61%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
24%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ostrov (draw refunded)
86%
Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrov at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

Tatran Rakovník away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrov attack 1.69 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.54

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.75 + Ostrov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Ostrov scores more
72%
level
16%
Tatran Rakovník scores more
12%

Ostrov at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Ostrov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ostrov 3 – 0 Tatran Rakovník

Ostrov beat Tatran Rakovník 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Ostrov in Ostrov.