Ostrov 4–1 Sokol Nespeky: Result & Stats

Ostrov

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sokol Nespeky

8/19/2023

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 3Stadion FK Ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ostrov66%

×Draw19%

Sokol Nespeky15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OstrovExpected goals in this matchSokol Nespeky

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.00

Ostrov

2.28

Sokol Nespeky

1.00

Ostrov creates 128% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

1.69

creates per match

0.87

1.13

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Ostrov

1.69

Sokol Nespeky

0.87

allows per match

Ostrov

1.13

Sokol Nespeky

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostrov+0.00on par

Sokol Nespeky+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrov ↓

Sokol Nespeky →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ostrov or draw

85%

Ostrov or Sokol Nespeky

81%

Draw or Sokol Nespeky

34%

Winning margin

Ostrov wins by 2+

43%

Sokol Nespeky wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ostrov 1+ goals

90%

Ostrov 2+ goals

66%

Ostrov 3+ goals

39%

Sokol Nespeky 1+ goals

63%

Sokol Nespeky 2+ goals

26%

Sokol Nespeky 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ostrov (draw refunded)

81%

Sokol Nespeky (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrov at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

Sokol Nespeky away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrov attack 1.69 + Sokol Nespeky defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.28

Sokol Nespeky attack 0.87 + Ostrov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ostrov scores more

66%

level

19%

Sokol Nespeky scores more

15%

Ostrov at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ostrov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff