Ostrov 2–0 Dobříš: Result & Stats

Ostrov

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dobříš

5/14/2022

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 25Stadion FK Ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ostrov70%

×Draw17%

Dobříš14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OstrovExpected goals in this matchDobříš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

1.04

Ostrov

2.55

Dobříš

1.04

Ostrov creates 145% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 24 away

1.69

creates per match

0.96

1.13

allows per match

3.42

creates per match

Ostrov

1.69

Dobříš

0.96

allows per match

Ostrov

1.13

Dobříš

3.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostrov+0.00on par

Dobříš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrov ↓

Dobříš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Ostrov or draw

86%

Ostrov or Dobříš

83%

Draw or Dobříš

30%

Winning margin

Ostrov wins by 2+

48%

Dobříš wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ostrov 1+ goals

92%

Ostrov 2+ goals

72%

Ostrov 3+ goals

46%

Dobříš 1+ goals

65%

Dobříš 2+ goals

28%

Dobříš 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ostrov (draw refunded)

84%

Dobříš (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrov at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

Dobříš away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrov attack 1.69 + Dobříš defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.55

Dobříš attack 0.96 + Ostrov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ostrov scores more

70%

level

17%

Dobříš scores more

14%

Ostrov at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ostrov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff