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Ostrov vs Brandýs nad Labem — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Ostrov
Ostrov
CANC
15:00
Brandýs nad Labem
Brandýs nad Labem
5/8/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 23Stadion FK Ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Ostrov50%
×Draw23%
Brandýs nad Labem27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrov
1.80
Brandýs nad Labem
1.27

Ostrov creates 42% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 37 away

creates per match

Ostrov
1.69
Brandýs nad Labem
1.41

allows per match

Ostrov
1.13
Brandýs nad Labem
1.92

finishing

Ostrov+0.00on par
Brandýs nad Labem+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrov ↓

Brandýs nad Labem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ostrov or draw
73%
Ostrov or Brandýs nad Labem
77%
Draw or Brandýs nad Labem
50%

Winning margin

Ostrov wins by 2+
27%
Brandýs nad Labem wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ostrov 1+ goals
83%
Ostrov 2+ goals
54%
Ostrov 3+ goals
27%
Brandýs nad Labem 1+ goals
72%
Brandýs nad Labem 2+ goals
36%
Brandýs nad Labem 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ostrov (draw refunded)
65%
Brandýs nad Labem (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrov at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

Brandýs nad Labem away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.92 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrov attack 1.69 + Brandýs nad Labem defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.80

Brandýs nad Labem attack 1.41 + Ostrov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ostrov scores more
50%
level
23%
Brandýs nad Labem scores more
27%

Ostrov at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ostrov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ostrov host Brandýs nad Labem

May 8, 2021: Ostrov take on Brandýs nad Labem in 4. liga - Divizie B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ostrov host Brandýs nad Labem at Stadion FK Ostrov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.