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Ostrá vs Dvůr Králové — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Ostrá
Ostrá
PST
15:00
Dvůr Králové
Dvůr Králové
5/10/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 25Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ostrá56%
×Draw22%
Dvůr Králové22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrá
2.01
Dvůr Králové
1.18

Ostrá creates 70% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 40 away

creates per match

Ostrá
1.75
Dvůr Králové
1.10

allows per match

Ostrá
1.25
Dvůr Králové
2.27

finishing

Ostrá+0.00on par
Dvůr Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrá ↓

Dvůr Králové →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ostrá or draw
78%
Ostrá or Dvůr Králové
78%
Draw or Dvůr Králové
44%

Winning margin

Ostrá wins by 2+
33%
Dvůr Králové wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ostrá 1+ goals
87%
Ostrá 2+ goals
59%
Ostrá 3+ goals
32%
Dvůr Králové 1+ goals
69%
Dvůr Králové 2+ goals
33%
Dvůr Králové 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ostrá (draw refunded)
72%
Dvůr Králové (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrá at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Dvůr Králové away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrá attack 1.75 + Dvůr Králové defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.01

Dvůr Králové attack 1.10 + Ostrá defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ostrá scores more
56%
level
22%
Dvůr Králové scores more
22%

Ostrá at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ostrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ostrá vs Dvůr Králové — Match Preview

Ostrá face Dvůr Králové on May 10, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ostrá host Dvůr Králové at Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.