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Dvůr Králové vs Ostrá — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Dvůr Králové
Dvůr Králové
Pens
1 – 1
Ostrá
Ostrá
10/13/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 10Stadion Pod Hankovým domem (Dvůr Králové nad Labem)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dvůr Králové39%
×Draw24%
Ostrá37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dvůr Králové
1.60
Ostrá
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dvůr Králové
1.71
Ostrá
1.50

allows per match

Dvůr Králové
1.61
Ostrá
1.50

finishing

Dvůr Králové+0.00on par
Ostrá+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dvůr Králové ↓

Ostrá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dvůr Králové or draw
63%
Dvůr Králové or Ostrá
76%
Draw or Ostrá
61%

Winning margin

Dvůr Králové wins by 2+
19%
Ostrá wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dvůr Králové 1+ goals
80%
Dvůr Králové 2+ goals
47%
Dvůr Králové 3+ goals
22%
Ostrá 1+ goals
79%
Ostrá 2+ goals
46%
Ostrá 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dvůr Králové (draw refunded)
51%
Ostrá (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dvůr Králové at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

Ostrá away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dvůr Králové attack 1.71 + Ostrá defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ostrá attack 1.50 + Dvůr Králové defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dvůr Králové scores more
39%
level
24%
Ostrá scores more
37%

Dvůr Králové at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dvůr Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Dvůr Králové 1–1 Ostrá

Dvůr Králové and Ostrá drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Hankovým domem (Dvůr Králové nad Labem).