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Ostrá vs Čáslav — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Ostrá
Ostrá
FT
2 – 4
Čáslav
Čáslav
9/7/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 5Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ostrá51%
×Draw22%
Čáslav27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrá
1.90
Čáslav
1.33

Ostrá creates 43% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ostrá
1.75
Čáslav
1.41

allows per match

Ostrá
1.25
Čáslav
2.04

finishing

Ostrá+0.00on par
Čáslav+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrá ↓

Čáslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ostrá or draw
73%
Ostrá or Čáslav
78%
Draw or Čáslav
49%

Winning margin

Ostrá wins by 2+
29%
Čáslav wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ostrá 1+ goals
85%
Ostrá 2+ goals
56%
Ostrá 3+ goals
29%
Čáslav 1+ goals
74%
Čáslav 2+ goals
38%
Čáslav 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ostrá (draw refunded)
65%
Čáslav (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrá at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Čáslav away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.04 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrá attack 1.75 + Čáslav defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.90

Čáslav attack 1.41 + Ostrá defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ostrá scores more
51%
level
22%
Čáslav scores more
27%

Ostrá at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ostrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostrá vs Čáslav

Čáslav beat Ostrá 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá).