Ostrá 1–0 Benátky nad Jizerou: Result & Stats

Ostrá

FT

1 – 0

Benátky nad Jizerou

10/5/2019

4. liga - Divizie C · Round 9Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ostrá38%

×Draw24%

Benátky nad Jizerou37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OstráExpected goals in this matchBenátky nad Jizerou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.48

Ostrá

1.50

Benátky nad Jizerou

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 55 away

1.75

creates per match

1.71

1.25

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Ostrá

1.75

Benátky nad Jizerou

1.71

allows per match

Ostrá

1.25

Benátky nad Jizerou

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostrá+0.00on par

Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrá ↓

Benátky nad Jizerou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ostrá or draw

63%

Ostrá or Benátky nad Jizerou

76%

Draw or Benátky nad Jizerou

62%

Winning margin

Ostrá wins by 2+

18%

Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ostrá 1+ goals

78%

Ostrá 2+ goals

44%

Ostrá 3+ goals

19%

Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals

77%

Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals

43%

Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ostrá (draw refunded)

51%

Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrá at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Benátky nad Jizerou away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrá attack 1.75 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 1.71 + Ostrá defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ostrá scores more

38%

level

24%

Benátky nad Jizerou scores more

37%

Ostrá at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ostrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff