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Ostia Mare vs Latte Dolce — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
PST
14:00
Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
3/29/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 29Stadio Anco Marzio (Lido di Ostia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ostia Mare48%
×Draw26%
Latte Dolce26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostia Mare
1.49
Latte Dolce
1.02

Ostia Mare creates 46% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 82 away

creates per match

Ostia Mare
1.39
Latte Dolce
1.10

allows per match

Ostia Mare
0.93
Latte Dolce
1.59

finishing

Ostia Mare+0.00on par
Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostia Mare ↓

Latte Dolce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ostia Mare or draw
74%
Ostia Mare or Latte Dolce
74%
Draw or Latte Dolce
52%

Winning margin

Ostia Mare wins by 2+
24%
Latte Dolce wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ostia Mare 1+ goals
77%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
44%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
19%
Latte Dolce 1+ goals
64%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
27%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
65%
Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostia Mare at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostia Mare attack 1.39 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.49

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Ostia Mare defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ostia Mare scores more
48%
level
26%
Latte Dolce scores more
26%

Ostia Mare at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ostia Mare face Latte Dolce (Serie D - Girone G)

Serie D - Girone G returns with Ostia Mare hosting Latte Dolce. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ostia Mare host Latte Dolce at Stadio Anco Marzio (Lido di Ostia).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.