Latte Dolce 0–1 Ostia Mare: Result & Stats

Latte Dolce

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ostia Mare

12/8/2021

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 13Stadio Comunale Latte Dolce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Latte Dolce34%

×Draw26%

Ostia Mare40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Latte DolceExpected goals in this matchOstia Mare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.40

Latte Dolce

1.28

Ostia Mare

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 48 away

1.41

creates per match

1.60

1.20

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Latte Dolce

1.41

Ostia Mare

1.60

allows per match

Latte Dolce

1.20

Ostia Mare

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latte Dolce ↓

Ostia Mare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Latte Dolce or draw

60%

Latte Dolce or Ostia Mare

74%

Draw or Ostia Mare

66%

Winning margin

Latte Dolce wins by 2+

15%

Ostia Mare wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Latte Dolce 1+ goals

72%

Latte Dolce 2+ goals

37%

Latte Dolce 3+ goals

14%

Ostia Mare 1+ goals

75%

Ostia Mare 2+ goals

41%

Ostia Mare 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)

46%

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latte Dolce at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latte Dolce attack 1.41 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Latte Dolce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Latte Dolce scores more

34%

level

26%

Ostia Mare scores more

40%

Ostia Mare at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff