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Ostia Mare vs Lanusei — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
FT
1 – 1
Lanusei
Lanusei
12/1/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 14Stadio Anco Marzio (Lido di Ostia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ostia Mare53%
×Draw27%
Lanusei20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostia Mare
1.47
Lanusei
0.79

Ostia Mare creates 86% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ostia Mare
1.39
Lanusei
0.65

allows per match

Ostia Mare
0.93
Lanusei
1.55

finishing

Ostia Mare+0.00on par
Lanusei+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostia Mare ↓

Lanusei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ostia Mare or draw
80%
Ostia Mare or Lanusei
73%
Draw or Lanusei
47%

Winning margin

Ostia Mare wins by 2+
27%
Lanusei wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ostia Mare 1+ goals
77%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
43%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
18%
Lanusei 1+ goals
55%
Lanusei 2+ goals
19%
Lanusei 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
73%
Lanusei (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostia Mare at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Lanusei away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostia Mare attack 1.39 + Lanusei defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.47

Lanusei attack 0.65 + Ostia Mare defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ostia Mare scores more
53%
level
27%
Lanusei scores more
20%

Ostia Mare at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Ostia Mare 1–1 Lanusei

Ostia Mare and Lanusei drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Anco Marzio (Lido di Ostia).