Ostia Mare 3–1 Budoni: Result & Stats

Ostia Mare

FT

3 – 1

Budoni

10/27/2019

Serie D - Girone G · Round 9Stadio Anco Marzio (Lido di Ostia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ostia Mare48%

×Draw28%

Budoni24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostia MareExpected goals in this matchBudoni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.88

Ostia Mare

1.36

Budoni

0.88

Ostia Mare creates 55% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 47 away

1.39

creates per match

0.83

0.93

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Ostia Mare

1.39

Budoni

0.83

allows per match

Ostia Mare

0.93

Budoni

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Budoni+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostia Mare ↓

Budoni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ostia Mare or draw

76%

Ostia Mare or Budoni

72%

Draw or Budoni

52%

Winning margin

Ostia Mare wins by 2+

23%

Budoni wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ostia Mare 1+ goals

74%

Ostia Mare 2+ goals

39%

Ostia Mare 3+ goals

16%

Budoni 1+ goals

59%

Budoni 2+ goals

22%

Budoni 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)

66%

Budoni (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostia Mare at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Budoni away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostia Mare attack 1.39 + Budoni defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Budoni attack 0.83 + Ostia Mare defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ostia Mare scores more

48%

level

28%

Budoni scores more

24%

Ostia Mare at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff