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Ostia Mare vs Afragolese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Afragolese
Afragolese
12/12/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 14Stadio Anco Marzio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ostia Mare47%
×Draw26%
Afragolese27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostia Mare
1.52
Afragolese
1.08

Ostia Mare creates 41% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ostia Mare
1.39
Afragolese
1.24

allows per match

Ostia Mare
0.93
Afragolese
1.65

finishing

Ostia Mare+0.00on par
Afragolese+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostia Mare ↓

Afragolese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ostia Mare or draw
73%
Ostia Mare or Afragolese
74%
Draw or Afragolese
53%

Winning margin

Ostia Mare wins by 2+
24%
Afragolese wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ostia Mare 1+ goals
78%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
45%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
20%
Afragolese 1+ goals
66%
Afragolese 2+ goals
29%
Afragolese 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
64%
Afragolese (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostia Mare at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Afragolese away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostia Mare attack 1.39 + Afragolese defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

Afragolese attack 1.24 + Ostia Mare defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ostia Mare scores more
47%
level
26%
Afragolese scores more
27%

Ostia Mare at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostia Mare vs Afragolese

Ostia Mare beat Afragolese 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Anco Marzio in Lido di Ostia.