Ostersunds FK 1–2 Vasteras SK FK: Result & Stats

Ostersunds FK

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Vasteras SK FK

A. Österholm 49'

F. Nsabiyumva 90+1'

F. Tronêt 80'

6/4/2023

Superettan · Round 11Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ostersunds FK40%

×Draw25%

Vasteras SK FK35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchVasteras SK FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.37

Ostersunds FK

1.48

Vasteras SK FK

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 90 away

1.57

creates per match

1.36

1.38

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.57

Vasteras SK FK

1.36

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

1.38

Vasteras SK FK

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Vasteras SK FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

65%

Ostersunds FK or Vasteras SK FK

75%

Draw or Vasteras SK FK

60%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

19%

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

77%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

43%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

19%

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals

75%

Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals

40%

Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

53%

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.38 · 68 matches

Vasteras SK FK away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.57 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.36 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

40%

level

25%

Vasteras SK FK scores more

35%

Ostersunds FK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Herman Magnusson

49'

A. Österholm

51'

Theodore Rask

57'

S. Johansson← P. Åslund

57'

O. Edlund← M. Gamboš

60'

Z. Ghanoum← J. Hedenquist

71'

J. Johnsson← C. Kabuye

71'

A. Sporrong← M. Sinyan

71'

F. Tronêt← J. Burke

72'

J. Ali← A. Hellblom

75'

S. Karlsson Grach← A. Österholm

75'

79'

79'

80'

86'

90+2'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OstersundsVasteras

Overview

39%Possession61%

9Total Shots9

1Corners10

15Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots9

3On Target5

6Off Target2

Passing

39%Possession61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1