Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 67+ matches
Ostersunds FK40%
Varbergs BoIS FC36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 68 home / 67 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ostersunds FK ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.38 · 68 matches
Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ostersunds FK attack 1.57 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58
Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.57 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Ostersunds FK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Falkenbergs FFVarbergs BoIS FC
Landskrona BoIS
Vasteras SK FK
Oddevold
HelsingborgOstersunds FK
IK brage
Kalmar FF
Sandviken
Orebro SK
Orgryte IS
GIF Sundsvall
IFK Norrkoping
United Nordic
Osters IF
Norrby IF
Ljungskile SK
Umeå FC
Utsikten
Trelleborg
IFK Varnamo
Hammarby TalangIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Ostersunds FK host Varbergs BoIS FC on Saturday, 27 July 2024 at 13:00. The match is part of the Superettan 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC
Ostersunds FK beat Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 in Superettan on July 27, 2024.
Goals: O. Edlund (37'), S. Karlsson Grach (56'), C. N'Sa (87').
Ostersunds FK controlled possession (68%) and registered 19 shots to 2.
The match was played at Jämtkraft Arena in Östersund.