Ostersunds FK 2–1 Utsikten: Result & Stats

Ostersunds FK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Utsikten

C. Amatkarijo 48'

J. Ali 45'

M. Sise 17'

9/25/2025

Superettan · Round 24Jamtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Ostersunds FK39%

×Draw23%

Utsikten37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchUtsikten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.62

Ostersunds FK

1.67

Utsikten

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.72

creates per match

1.26

1.98

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.72

Utsikten

1.26

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

1.98

Utsikten

1.62

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

Ostersunds FK-0.10scores less

Utsikten+0.41scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Utsikten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

63%

Ostersunds FK or Utsikten

77%

Draw or Utsikten

61%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

20%

Utsikten wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

81%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

50%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

23%

Utsikten 1+ goals

80%

Utsikten 2+ goals

48%

Utsikten 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

51%

Utsikten (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.98 · 13 matches

Utsikten away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.72 + Utsikten defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.67

Utsikten attack 1.26 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

39%

level

23%

Utsikten scores more

37%

Ostersunds FK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

M. Sise↳ S. Lagerlund

22'

Chovanie Amatkarijo

34'

Robin Book

43'

Noah Johansson

45'

J. Ali↳ C. Amatkarijo

46'

48'

54'

72'

75'

A. Edqvist← A. Bonnah

81'

W. Hjort← K. Rodeblad Lowe

83'

J. Kirby← J. Ali

83'

Z. Ghanoum← T. Johansson

88'

E. Berisha← M. Sise

Ostersunds4-3-3

Utsikten3-5-2

9

⚽

▼

Sise

16

Jawla

7

▼

10

25

11

2

21

▼

Lowe

33

A

4

31

1

4

▼

5

23

2

15

16

10

22

▼

Bonnah

14

⚽

▼

Ali

25

⚽A

Amatkarij

Manager: Kiarash Livani

75'▲A. Edqvist←▼A. Bonnah

83'▲J. Kirby←▼J. Ali

83'▲Z. Ghanoum←▼T. Johansson

Ostersunds FK substitutes

32Croon6Edqvist9Kirby11Hopcutt20Oluwayemi27Ghanoum28Adjoumani

Manager: Christian Boško Luca Orović

46'▲A. Karlsson←▼A. Titi

81'▲W. Hjort←▼K. Rodeblad Lowe

88'▲E. Berisha←▼M. Sise

Utsikten substitutes

1Gustafsson8Faltsetas12Hjort15Berisha20Gunnarsson23Karlsson