Ostersunds FK 3–1 Falkenbergs FF: Result & Stats

Ostersunds FK

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Falkenbergs FF

J. Kirby 64'

J. Hopcutt 54'

P. Bonde 31'

H. Kallstrom 79'

7/19/2025

Superettan · Round 15Jamtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Ostersunds FK34%

×Draw21%

Falkenbergs FF44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchFalkenbergs FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.02

Ostersunds FK

1.77

Falkenbergs FF

2.02

Falkenbergs FF creates 14% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.62

creates per match

1.92

2.13

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.62

Falkenbergs FF

1.92

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

2.13

Falkenbergs FF

1.91

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.18scores more

Falkenbergs FF-0.35scores less

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Falkenbergs FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

56%

Ostersunds FK or Falkenbergs FF

79%

Draw or Falkenbergs FF

66%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

17%

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

83%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

53%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

26%

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

87%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

60%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

44%

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.13 · 10 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.62 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.77

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.92 + Ostersunds FK defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

34%

level

21%

Falkenbergs FF scores more

44%

Falkenbergs FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Sporrong

Ostersunds FK · M

7.7

Match Events

31'

P. Bonde↳ A. Bonnah

46'

G. Granstrom← A. Bonnah

54'

J. Hopcutt↳ T. Johansson

55'

Nebiyou Perry

58'

R. Gotfredsen← L. Sibelius

58'

L. Shahin← I. Shears

58'

H. Kallstrom← O. Lindberg

62'

J. Kirby← J. Hopcutt

62'

C. Morfelt← N. Perry

64'

J. Kirby↳ S. Marklund

66'

S. Hindi← A. Andersson

75'

S. Anyanwu← A. Suljic

75'

Z. Ghanoum← A. Edqvist

79'

H. Kallstrom↳ L. Shahin

86'

T. Stalheden← N. Hansson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OstersundsFalkenbergs

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots8

2.39Expected Goals (xG)1.30

5Corners3

8Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots8

7On Target3

5Off Target2

2Blocked3

8Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

462Total Passes434

390Accurate Passes352

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2