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Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
9/20/2020AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 21Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ostersunds FK31%
×Draw26%
Djurgardens IF43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostersunds FK
1.19
Djurgardens IF
1.45

Djurgardens IF creates 22% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 125 away

creates per match

Ostersunds FK
1.30
Djurgardens IF
1.40

allows per match

Ostersunds FK
1.50
Djurgardens IF
1.07

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par
Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw
57%
Ostersunds FK or Djurgardens IF
74%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
69%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
13%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
70%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
33%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
12%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
77%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
42%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
42%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.30 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Djurgardens IF attack 1.40 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more
31%
level
26%
Djurgardens IF scores more
43%

Djurgardens IF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Ostersunds FK 1–1 Djurgardens IF

Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Jämtkraft Arena in Östersund.