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Ostersunds FK vs Akropolis — Svenska Cupen 2019

Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Akropolis
Akropolis
3/3/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ostersunds FK35%
×Draw26%
Akropolis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostersunds FK
1.31
Akropolis
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ostersunds FK
1.80
Akropolis
2.00

allows per match

Ostersunds FK
0.80
Akropolis
0.83

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par
Akropolis+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Akropolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw
61%
Ostersunds FK or Akropolis
74%
Draw or Akropolis
65%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
15%
Akropolis wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
73%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
38%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
14%
Akropolis 1+ goals
75%
Akropolis 2+ goals
41%
Akropolis 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
47%
Akropolis (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Akropolis away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.80 + Akropolis defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.31

Akropolis attack 2.00 + Ostersunds FK defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more
35%
level
26%
Akropolis scores more
39%

Akropolis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Akropolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostersunds FK vs Akropolis

Ostersunds FK and Akropolis drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 3, 2021.

The match was played at Jämtkraft Arena in Östersund.