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Osters IF vs Syrianska FC — Superettan 2018

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
10/21/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 28Myresjöhus Arena (Växjö)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Osters IF57%
×Draw23%
Syrianska FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.81
Syrianska FC
0.97

Osters IF creates 87% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.63
Syrianska FC
0.87

allows per match

Osters IF
1.07
Syrianska FC
2.00

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Syrianska FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
80%
Osters IF or Syrianska FC
77%
Draw or Syrianska FC
43%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
33%
Syrianska FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
84%
Osters IF 2+ goals
54%
Osters IF 3+ goals
27%
Syrianska FC 1+ goals
62%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
25%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
74%
Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 112 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.63 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Syrianska FC attack 0.87 + Osters IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Osters IF scores more
57%
level
23%
Syrianska FC scores more
20%

Osters IF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Osters IF 4–0 Syrianska FC

Osters IF beat Syrianska FC 4-0 in Superettan on October 21, 2019.

The match was played at Myresjöhus Arena (Växjö).