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Osters IF vs Sollentuna — Svenska Cupen 2019

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sollentuna
Sollentuna
3/5/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Sportfältet Teleborg Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Osters IF40%
×Draw20%
Sollentuna40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
2.12
Sollentuna
2.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Osters IF
2.80
Sollentuna
3.22

allows per match

Osters IF
1.00
Sollentuna
1.44

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
Sollentuna+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Sollentuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
60%
Osters IF or Sollentuna
80%
Draw or Sollentuna
60%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
22%
Sollentuna wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
88%
Osters IF 2+ goals
62%
Osters IF 3+ goals
35%
Sollentuna 1+ goals
88%
Sollentuna 2+ goals
62%
Sollentuna 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
50%
Sollentuna (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Sollentuna away — creates 3.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 2.80 + Sollentuna defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.12

Sollentuna attack 3.22 + Osters IF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Osters IF scores more
40%
level
20%
Sollentuna scores more
40%

Osters IF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Osters IF 1–1 Sollentuna

Osters IF and Sollentuna drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Sportfältet Teleborg Konstgräs in Växjö.