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Ostermiething vs Union Edelweiß — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Ostermiething
Ostermiething
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Edelweiß
Union Edelweiß
10/31/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 14Stampfl-Bau Arena Ostermiething

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Ostermiething44%
×Draw21%
Union Edelweiß35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostermiething
2.00
Union Edelweiß
1.77

Ostermiething creates 13% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 88 away

creates per match

Ostermiething
2.10
Union Edelweiß
1.53

allows per match

Ostermiething
2.00
Union Edelweiß
1.90

finishing

Ostermiething+0.00on par
Union Edelweiß+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostermiething ↓

Union Edelweiß →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Ostermiething or draw
65%
Ostermiething or Union Edelweiß
79%
Draw or Union Edelweiß
56%

Winning margin

Ostermiething wins by 2+
24%
Union Edelweiß wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ostermiething 1+ goals
86%
Ostermiething 2+ goals
59%
Ostermiething 3+ goals
32%
Union Edelweiß 1+ goals
83%
Union Edelweiß 2+ goals
53%
Union Edelweiß 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Ostermiething (draw refunded)
56%
Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostermiething at home — creates 2.10, concedes 2.00 · 59 matches

Union Edelweiß away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostermiething attack 2.10 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.00

Union Edelweiß attack 1.53 + Ostermiething defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ostermiething scores more
44%
level
21%
Union Edelweiß scores more
35%

Ostermiething at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ostermiething will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Ostermiething 0–0 Union Edelweiß

Ostermiething and Union Edelweiß drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on October 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stampfl-Bau Arena Ostermiething in Ostermiething.