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Ostermiething vs Gmunden — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Ostermiething
Ostermiething
FT
2 – 0
Gmunden
Gmunden
8/30/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 5Stampfl-Bau Arena Ostermiething

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ostermiething51%
×Draw20%
Gmunden29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostermiething
2.35
Gmunden
1.73

Ostermiething creates 36% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ostermiething
2.10
Gmunden
1.47

allows per match

Ostermiething
2.00
Gmunden
2.60

finishing

Ostermiething+0.00on par
Gmunden+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostermiething ↓

Gmunden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Ostermiething or draw
71%
Ostermiething or Gmunden
80%
Draw or Gmunden
49%

Winning margin

Ostermiething wins by 2+
31%
Gmunden wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ostermiething 1+ goals
90%
Ostermiething 2+ goals
68%
Ostermiething 3+ goals
41%
Gmunden 1+ goals
82%
Gmunden 2+ goals
52%
Gmunden 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ostermiething (draw refunded)
64%
Gmunden (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostermiething at home — creates 2.10, concedes 2.00 · 59 matches

Gmunden away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostermiething attack 2.10 + Gmunden defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.35

Gmunden attack 1.47 + Ostermiething defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ostermiething scores more
51%
level
20%
Gmunden scores more
29%

Ostermiething at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ostermiething will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostermiething vs Gmunden

Ostermiething beat Gmunden 2-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stampfl-Bau Arena Ostermiething in Ostermiething.