Österlen 1–2 Torns: Result & Stats

Österlen

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Torns

Unknown 82' (OG)

A. Kozic Lofqvist 74'

O. Khattab 30'

5/4/2025

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 6Skillinge Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Österlen51%

×Draw21%

Torns27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÖsterlenExpected goals in this matchTorns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.44

Österlen

2.05

Torns

1.44

Österlen creates 42% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 23 away

1.81

creates per match

1.43

1.46

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Österlen

1.81

Torns

1.43

allows per match

Österlen

1.46

Torns

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Österlen+0.00on par

Torns+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Österlen ↓

Torns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Österlen or draw

73%

Österlen or Torns

79%

Draw or Torns

49%

Winning margin

Österlen wins by 2+

30%

Torns wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Österlen 1+ goals

87%

Österlen 2+ goals

61%

Österlen 3+ goals

33%

Torns 1+ goals

76%

Torns 2+ goals

42%

Torns 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Österlen (draw refunded)

66%

Torns (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Österlen at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.46 · 80 matches

Torns away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Österlen attack 1.81 + Torns defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.05

Torns attack 1.43 + Österlen defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Österlen scores more

51%

level

21%

Torns scores more

27%

Österlen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Österlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

O. Khattab

74'

A. Kozic Lofqvist

82'

Own goal

90'

L. Blixt

90'

L. Blixt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff