Österlen 4–2 Råslätts: Result & Stats

Österlen

FT

4 – 2

Råslätts

6/29/2019

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Round 14Skillinge Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Österlen56%

×Draw22%

Råslätts22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÖsterlenExpected goals in this matchRåslätts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.13

Österlen

1.93

Råslätts

1.13

Österlen creates 71% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 13 away

1.78

creates per match

0.77

1.48

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Österlen

1.78

Råslätts

0.77

allows per match

Österlen

1.48

Råslätts

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Österlen+0.00on par

Råslätts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Österlen ↓

Råslätts →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Österlen or draw

78%

Österlen or Råslätts

78%

Draw or Råslätts

44%

Winning margin

Österlen wins by 2+

33%

Råslätts wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Österlen 1+ goals

85%

Österlen 2+ goals

57%

Österlen 3+ goals

30%

Råslätts 1+ goals

68%

Råslätts 2+ goals

31%

Råslätts 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Österlen (draw refunded)

72%

Råslätts (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Österlen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 79 matches

Råslätts away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Österlen attack 1.78 + Råslätts defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.93

Råslätts attack 0.77 + Österlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Österlen scores more

56%

level

22%

Råslätts scores more

22%

Österlen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Österlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff