Österlen 0–3 IFK Goteborg: Result & Stats

Österlen

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

IFK Goteborg

8/17/2021

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundSkillinge Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Österlen23%

×Draw20%

IFK Goteborg57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÖsterlenExpected goals in this matchIFK Goteborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

2.24

Österlen

1.36

IFK Goteborg

2.24

IFK Goteborg creates 65% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

1.67

creates per match

2.47

2.00

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Österlen

1.67

IFK Goteborg

2.47

allows per match

Österlen

2.00

IFK Goteborg

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Österlen+0.00on par

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Österlen ↓

IFK Goteborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Österlen or draw

43%

Österlen or IFK Goteborg

80%

Draw or IFK Goteborg

77%

Winning margin

Österlen wins by 2+

10%

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Österlen 1+ goals

74%

Österlen 2+ goals

39%

Österlen 3+ goals

16%

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

89%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

65%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Österlen (draw refunded)

29%

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Österlen at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Österlen attack 1.67 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.36

IFK Goteborg attack 2.47 + Österlen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Österlen scores more

23%

level

20%

IFK Goteborg scores more

57%

IFK Goteborg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff