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Österlen vs Almeboda Linneryd — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Österlen
Österlen
FT
1 – 0
Almeboda Linneryd
Almeboda Linneryd
5/18/2019Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Round 7Skillinge Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Österlen44%
×Draw23%
Almeboda Linneryd33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Österlen
1.81
Almeboda Linneryd
1.55

Österlen creates 17% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 19 away

creates per match

Österlen
1.78
Almeboda Linneryd
1.63

allows per match

Österlen
1.48
Almeboda Linneryd
1.84

finishing

Österlen+0.00on par
Almeboda Linneryd+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Österlen ↓

Almeboda Linneryd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Österlen or draw
67%
Österlen or Almeboda Linneryd
77%
Draw or Almeboda Linneryd
56%

Winning margin

Österlen wins by 2+
24%
Almeboda Linneryd wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Österlen 1+ goals
84%
Österlen 2+ goals
54%
Österlen 3+ goals
27%
Almeboda Linneryd 1+ goals
79%
Almeboda Linneryd 2+ goals
46%
Almeboda Linneryd 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Österlen (draw refunded)
57%
Almeboda Linneryd (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Österlen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 79 matches

Almeboda Linneryd away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Österlen attack 1.78 + Almeboda Linneryd defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.81

Almeboda Linneryd attack 1.63 + Österlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Österlen scores more
44%
level
23%
Almeboda Linneryd scores more
33%

Österlen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Österlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Österlen vs Almeboda Linneryd

Österlen beat Almeboda Linneryd 1-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Skillinge Idrottsplats in Skillinge.