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OSS '20 vs Gemert — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

OSS '20
OSS '20
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gemert
Gemert
5/8/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 29Sportpark De Rusheuvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

OSS '2043%
×Draw22%
Gemert35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OSS '20
1.85
Gemert
1.66

OSS '20 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 99 away

creates per match

OSS '20
1.80
Gemert
1.75

allows per match

OSS '20
1.57
Gemert
1.90

finishing

OSS '20+0.00on par
Gemert+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OSS '20 ↓

Gemert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

OSS '20 or draw
65%
OSS '20 or Gemert
78%
Draw or Gemert
57%

Winning margin

OSS '20 wins by 2+
23%
Gemert wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

OSS '20 1+ goals
84%
OSS '20 2+ goals
55%
OSS '20 3+ goals
28%
Gemert 1+ goals
81%
Gemert 2+ goals
49%
Gemert 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

OSS '20 (draw refunded)
55%
Gemert (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OSS '20 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 65 matches

Gemert away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.90 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OSS '20 attack 1.80 + Gemert defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.85

Gemert attack 1.75 + OSS '20 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

OSS '20 scores more
43%
level
22%
Gemert scores more
35%

OSS '20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "OSS '20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: OSS '20 0–0 Gemert

OSS '20 and Gemert drew 0-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Rusheuvel in Oss.