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OsPa vs VPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

OsPa
OsPa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
VPS II
VPS II
5/17/2025Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 5Oulu-lehti Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

OsPa66%
×Draw16%
VPS II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OsPa
3.14
VPS II
1.63

OsPa creates 93% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 25 away

creates per match

OsPa
3.88
VPS II
1.64

allows per match

OsPa
1.63
VPS II
2.40

finishing

OsPa+0.00on par
VPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OsPa ↓

VPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

OsPa or draw
82%
OsPa or VPS II
84%
Draw or VPS II
34%

Winning margin

OsPa wins by 2+
47%
VPS II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

OsPa 1+ goals
95%
OsPa 2+ goals
81%
OsPa 3+ goals
59%
VPS II 1+ goals
80%
VPS II 2+ goals
48%
VPS II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

OsPa (draw refunded)
79%
VPS II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OsPa at home — creates 3.88, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

VPS II away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OsPa attack 3.88 + VPS II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 3.14

VPS II attack 1.64 + OsPa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

OsPa scores more
66%
level
16%
VPS II scores more
18%

OsPa at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "OsPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OsPa 0 – 2 VPS II

VPS II beat OsPa 2-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Oulu-lehti Areena in Oulu.