Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Osogovo vs Vardar Skopje — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Osogovo
Osogovo
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
2/7/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Osogovo26%
×Draw23%
Vardar Skopje50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osogovo
1.23
Vardar Skopje
1.79

Vardar Skopje creates 46% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Osogovo
0.33
Vardar Skopje
1.25

allows per match

Osogovo
2.33
Vardar Skopje
2.13

finishing

Osogovo+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osogovo ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Osogovo or draw
50%
Osogovo or Vardar Skopje
77%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
74%

Winning margin

Osogovo wins by 2+
11%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Osogovo 1+ goals
71%
Osogovo 2+ goals
35%
Osogovo 3+ goals
13%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
83%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
53%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Osogovo (draw refunded)
34%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osogovo at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osogovo attack 0.33 + Vardar Skopje defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Vardar Skopje attack 1.25 + Osogovo defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Osogovo scores more
26%
level
23%
Vardar Skopje scores more
50%

Vardar Skopje at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Osogovo vs Vardar Skopje

Vardar Skopje beat Osogovo 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 7, 2026.