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Osogovo vs Pelister — Second League 2019

Osogovo
Osogovo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pelister
Pelister
5/19/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 30Stadion Nikola Mantov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Osogovo30%
×Draw26%
Pelister44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osogovo
1.19
Pelister
1.50

Pelister creates 26% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 38 away

creates per match

Osogovo
1.39
Pelister
1.68

allows per match

Osogovo
1.33
Pelister
1.00

finishing

Osogovo+0.00on par
Pelister+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osogovo ↓

Pelister →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Osogovo or draw
56%
Osogovo or Pelister
74%
Draw or Pelister
70%

Winning margin

Osogovo wins by 2+
12%
Pelister wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Osogovo 1+ goals
70%
Osogovo 2+ goals
33%
Osogovo 3+ goals
12%
Pelister 1+ goals
78%
Pelister 2+ goals
44%
Pelister 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Osogovo (draw refunded)
40%
Pelister (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osogovo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Pelister away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osogovo attack 1.39 + Pelister defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Pelister attack 1.68 + Osogovo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Osogovo scores more
30%
level
26%
Pelister scores more
44%

Pelister at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Osogovo 3–0 Pelister

Osogovo beat Pelister 3-0 in Second League on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Nikola Mantov in Kočani.