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Osogovo vs Pehchevo — Second League 2019

Osogovo
Osogovo
FT
1 – 2
Pehchevo
Pehchevo
11/23/2019Second LeagueSecond League · East - 13Stadion Nikola Mantov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Osogovo40%
×Draw27%
Pehchevo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osogovo
1.35
Pehchevo
1.22

Osogovo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 36 away

creates per match

Osogovo
1.39
Pehchevo
1.11

allows per match

Osogovo
1.33
Pehchevo
1.31

finishing

Osogovo+0.00on par
Pehchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osogovo ↓

Pehchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Osogovo or draw
66%
Osogovo or Pehchevo
73%
Draw or Pehchevo
60%

Winning margin

Osogovo wins by 2+
18%
Pehchevo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Osogovo 1+ goals
74%
Osogovo 2+ goals
39%
Osogovo 3+ goals
15%
Pehchevo 1+ goals
70%
Pehchevo 2+ goals
34%
Pehchevo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Osogovo (draw refunded)
54%
Pehchevo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osogovo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Pehchevo away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osogovo attack 1.39 + Pehchevo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pehchevo attack 1.11 + Osogovo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Osogovo scores more
40%
level
27%
Pehchevo scores more
34%

Osogovo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Osogovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Osogovo vs Pehchevo

Pehchevo beat Osogovo 2-1 in Second League on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Nikola Mantov in Kočani.