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Osogovo vs Besa Dobërdoll — Second League 2019

Osogovo
Osogovo
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
8/12/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 1Stadion Nikola Mantov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Osogovo28%
×Draw26%
Besa Dobërdoll46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osogovo
1.11
Besa Dobërdoll
1.50

Besa Dobërdoll creates 35% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 30 away

creates per match

Osogovo
1.39
Besa Dobërdoll
1.67

allows per match

Osogovo
1.33
Besa Dobërdoll
0.83

finishing

Osogovo+0.00on par
Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osogovo ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Osogovo or draw
54%
Osogovo or Besa Dobërdoll
74%
Draw or Besa Dobërdoll
72%

Winning margin

Osogovo wins by 2+
11%
Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Osogovo 1+ goals
67%
Osogovo 2+ goals
30%
Osogovo 3+ goals
10%
Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
78%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
44%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Osogovo (draw refunded)
38%
Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osogovo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osogovo attack 1.39 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.11

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.67 + Osogovo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Osogovo scores more
28%
level
26%
Besa Dobërdoll scores more
46%

Besa Dobërdoll at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Osogovo vs Besa Dobërdoll

Besa Dobërdoll beat Osogovo 4-0 in Second League on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Nikola Mantov in Kočani.