Osogovo 1–0 Bashkimi Kumanovo: Result & Stats

Osogovo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bashkimi Kumanovo

4/26/2025

Second League · Round 26Stadion Nikola Mantov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Osogovo38%

×Draw28%

Bashkimi Kumanovo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsogovoExpected goals in this matchBashkimi Kumanovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Osogovo

1.23

Bashkimi Kumanovo

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 30 away

1.39

creates per match

0.97

1.33

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Osogovo

1.39

Bashkimi Kumanovo

0.97

allows per match

Osogovo

1.33

Bashkimi Kumanovo

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osogovo+0.00on par

Bashkimi Kumanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osogovo ↓

Bashkimi Kumanovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Osogovo or draw

66%

Osogovo or Bashkimi Kumanovo

72%

Draw or Bashkimi Kumanovo

62%

Winning margin

Osogovo wins by 2+

16%

Bashkimi Kumanovo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Osogovo 1+ goals

71%

Osogovo 2+ goals

35%

Osogovo 3+ goals

13%

Bashkimi Kumanovo 1+ goals

68%

Bashkimi Kumanovo 2+ goals

32%

Bashkimi Kumanovo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Osogovo (draw refunded)

53%

Bashkimi Kumanovo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osogovo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Bashkimi Kumanovo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osogovo attack 1.39 + Bashkimi Kumanovo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bashkimi Kumanovo attack 0.97 + Osogovo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Osogovo scores more

38%

level

28%

Bashkimi Kumanovo scores more

34%

Osogovo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Osogovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff