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Osnabrück U19 vs Viktoria Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Osnabrück U19
Osnabrück U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Viktoria Köln U19
Viktoria Köln U19
3/28/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Osnabrück U1937%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Köln U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osnabrück U19
1.63
Viktoria Köln U19
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 66 away

creates per match

Osnabrück U19
1.29
Viktoria Köln U19
1.47

allows per match

Osnabrück U19
1.95
Viktoria Köln U19
1.97

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par
Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Viktoria Köln U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw
60%
Osnabrück U19 or Viktoria Köln U19
77%
Draw or Viktoria Köln U19
63%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+
18%
Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals
80%
Osnabrück U19 2+ goals
48%
Osnabrück U19 3+ goals
22%
Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals
82%
Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals
51%
Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)
48%
Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Viktoria Köln U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.97 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.63

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.47 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more
37%
level
23%
Viktoria Köln U19 scores more
40%

Viktoria Köln U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Viktoria Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Osnabrück
Viktoria
T. Danneberg
Manager: T. Danneberg
P. Schiavo
Manager: P. Schiavo

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Viktoria Köln U19

Osnabrück U19 beat Viktoria Köln U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 28, 2026.