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Osnabrück U19 vs Preußen Münster U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Osnabrück U19
Osnabrück U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Preußen Münster U19
Preußen Münster U19
D. Kifel 37' (pen)
L. Schroer 80' (pen)
L. Dekarski 40'
8/2/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 1Sportpark Illoshöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Osnabrück U1936%
×Draw22%
Preußen Münster U1942%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osnabrück U19
1.66
Preußen Münster U19
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 61 away

creates per match

Osnabrück U19
1.29
Preußen Münster U19
1.66

allows per match

Osnabrück U19
1.95
Preußen Münster U19
2.02

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par
Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw
58%
Osnabrück U19 or Preußen Münster U19
78%
Draw or Preußen Münster U19
64%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+
18%
Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals
81%
Osnabrück U19 2+ goals
49%
Osnabrück U19 3+ goals
23%
Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals
83%
Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals
54%
Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.02 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.66

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.66 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more
36%
level
22%
Preußen Münster U19 scores more
42%

Preußen Münster U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
D. KifelPenalty
40'
L. Dekarski
80'
L. SchroerPenalty
Osnabrück
Preußen
T. Danneberg
Manager: T. Danneberg
J. Hötting
Manager: J. Hötting

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Preußen Münster U19

Preußen Münster U19 beat Osnabrück U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 2, 2025.

Goals: D. Kifel (37' pen), L. Dekarski (40'), L. Schroer (80' pen).

The match was played at Sportpark Illoshöhe in Osnabrück.