Osnabrück U19 0–5 Paderborn U19: Result & Stats

Osnabrück U19

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Paderborn U19

Pedro Restrepo Naranjo 74'

H. Koch 72' (pen), 32'

J. Markötter 48'

J. Kroll 45' (OG)

9/21/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 7Sportpark Illoshöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Osnabrück U1929%

×Draw21%

Paderborn U1950%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osnabrück U19Expected goals in this matchPaderborn U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

2.05

Osnabrück U19

1.53

Paderborn U19

2.05

Paderborn U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 60 away

1.29

creates per match

2.15

1.95

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Osnabrück U19

1.29

Paderborn U19

2.15

allows per match

Osnabrück U19

1.95

Paderborn U19

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw

50%

Osnabrück U19 or Paderborn U19

79%

Draw or Paderborn U19

71%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

13%

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

78%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

45%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

20%

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

87%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

61%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.53

Paderborn U19 attack 2.15 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more

29%

level

21%

Paderborn U19 scores more

50%

Paderborn U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

H. Koch

45'

J. KrollOwn goal

48'

J. Markötter

63'

A. Altay← M. Theiß

63'

F. Babak← J. Markötter

63'

Pedro Restrepo Naranjo← C. Agirayak

65'

L. Bukvić← R. Shivani

65'

J. Völkerding← L. Uwandu

72'

J. Kerlen← H. Koch

72'

K. George← Hassan Mohammad

72'

H. KochPenalty

74'

Pedro Restrepo Naranjo

75'

D. Kifel← E. Zucht

75'

N. Scheuer← M. Khan

75'

O. Fehring← F. Langhammer

75'

L. Juka← A. Zajaczek

79'

F. Albrecht← I. Touray

Osnabrück

Paderborn

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Koch

▼

Theiß

⚽

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Ukrow

65'▲L. Bukvić←▼R. Shivani

65'▲J. Völkerding←▼L. Uwandu

75'▲D. Kifel←▼E. Zucht

75'▲N. Scheuer←▼M. Khan

75'▲O. Fehring←▼F. Langhammer

79'▲F. Albrecht←▼I. Touray

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

BukvićVölkerdingKifelScheuerFehringAlbrechtSiemon

Manager: I. Kalkan

63'▲A. Altay←▼M. Theiß

63'▲F. Babak←▼J. Markötter

63'▲Pedro Restrepo Naranjo←▼C. Agirayak

72'▲J. Kerlen←▼H. Koch

72'▲K. George←▼Hassan Mohammad

75'▲L. Juka←▼A. Zajaczek

Paderborn U19 substitutes

AltayBabakNaranjoKerlenGeorgeJukaObertrifter

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Paderborn U19

Paderborn U19 beat Osnabrück U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 21, 2024.

Goals: H. Koch (32', 72' pen), J. Kroll (45' o.g.), J. Markötter (48'), Pedro Restrepo Naranjo (74').

The match was played at Sportpark Illoshöhe in Osnabrück.

Osnabrück U19 vs Paderborn U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Paderborn U19